What the Evidence Says About Software Development
A seven-part examination of AI's impact on the profession — built from 40 source documents, five independent analytical lenses, and 25 years of pattern recognition. Every claim is source-attributed. Findings are presented at the confidence level the evidence supports.
7 pieces · Published March 2026
01°The Bifurcation
The software profession is splitting in two. The evidence is clear on what determines which side you land on.
Sixteen Funerals
What 150 years of workforce disruption actually teaches us — and where the pattern breaks for developers.
The Productivity Mirage
What AI coding tools actually do to developer output — and the 39-point gap between perception and reality.
The Missing Rung
The junior developer pipeline is being dismantled — and the industry will need those developers in five years.
Where the Ground Is Solid
Five structural characteristics that separate durable developer careers from vulnerable ones — illustrated across the economy.
No Cavalry
Why no one — not your employer, not the government, not a union — is coming to manage this transition for you.
The Long Game
Career strategy for a disruption that plays out over years, not quarters — by career stage, with confidence levels attached.